The atmosphere is already rising as Liverpool prepare to travel to Manchester City, and the football world can feel that something special is about to happen. It is more than just another Premier League match. It is one of those games that define who really controls English football in this new era. But according to the data and the computers, Liverpool are not the favourites. The Opta supercomputer has spoken, and the numbers don’t smile kindly at Jurgen Klopp’s side. Yet football has never been played on spreadsheets or in code—it’s played on grass, under pressure, with emotion, and with men who have hearts that refuse to quit. And that’s where Liverpool’s real story begins.
Opta’s machine ran ten thousand pre-match simulations. Each one was designed to find the most likely outcome when these two football monsters collide at the Etihad. After all that calculation, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City came out with a 45.4% chance of winning, while Liverpool were given just a 27.7% chance. Even a draw, at 26.9%, was more likely than a Liverpool victory according to the numbers. But numbers cannot measure belief, and belief is something this Liverpool side has never lacked.
It’s a strange balance right now between these two giants. Only one point separates them in the league table—City have 19, Liverpool 18. One game could flip everything. And while Opta’s simulations talk in decimals and percentages, reality often ignores mathematics when it comes to this fixture. This is the rivalry that has shaped English football for the last decade. Klopp vs Guardiola, Salah vs Haaland, energy vs precision. Each time they meet, the league trembles.
There’s history in every blade of grass that will host this match. Mohamed Salah, Liverpool’s Egyptian King, walks into this battle with destiny calling his name once again. One more goal or assist will make him surpass Wayne Rooney’s record for the most goal involvements at a single Premier League club. It’s the kind of record that stamps your legacy forever. And there’s something poetic about the fact that it could happen against Manchester City, the team that has always stood as Liverpool’s mirror, their greatest rival and their toughest test.
The Opta report may favour City, but it also shows how close these teams truly are. Erling Haaland, the Norwegian machine, is only two goals away from reaching 100 Premier League goals. Salah, on the other hand, has been directly involved in 15 goals against City—nine goals and six assists. No other player in Premier League history has hurt Guardiola’s City more. It’s as if Salah saves his sharpest weapons for this exact opponent, the team that tries to dominate everyone but still fears him each time he touches the ball.
The game could be shaped by small details, and that’s where Liverpool’s possible boost comes in. Arne Slot, Liverpool’s new boss, confirmed that Alexander Isak, who has been out for three weeks, is finally back in full training. The Swedish striker may not be at his absolute best yet, but just his presence gives Liverpool another option, another weapon in a battle that will demand everything. Slot reminded supporters not to expect miracles immediately, but everyone knows how much energy a returning striker can bring to a dressing room like Liverpool’s.
When you talk about belief, you must remember what Liverpool did in Europe during the week. That 1–0 win over Real Madrid in midweek was not just another victory—it was a statement that this team can still dominate Europe’s biggest names. Opta’s post-match numbers showed Liverpool had 2.58 expected goals compared to Madrid’s 0.45. In simple terms, Liverpool didn’t just win—they controlled. They suffocated a European champion and made them look ordinary. That same level of control will be needed again if they are to survive at the Etihad.
The defensive discipline that Liverpool showed in that match was also a sign that the old spirit is returning. Virgil van Dijk looked like a captain from another planet, calm and commanding as always. He led a back line that allowed Madrid just eight shots all game. Andy Robertson, whose form had dipped earlier in the season, looked like the old warrior again, bombing forward, defending with fire, and giving the team a balance down the left side that had been missing for months. Slot praised Robertson publicly, saying his return to form has been vital. Every Liverpool fan will agree.
But if there’s one area where Liverpool can really challenge City, it’s in creativity. And that’s where a new name is quietly starting to shine—Florian Wirtz. The young German midfielder has become one of Liverpool’s most important playmakers in recent weeks. Against Real Madrid, he created five chances in just one half. That is the most by any Liverpool player in a single half since January. When he is on the ball, Liverpool’s attacks breathe life. His movement, vision, and courage to take risks give this team something fresh, something unpredictable. And unpredictability is the one thing Guardiola’s system often struggles against.
So while the numbers may say City are favourites, it’s dangerous to write Liverpool off. Because Liverpool are not built on logic—they are built on emotion, on faith, on those invisible forces that computers can’t measure. When the world doubts them, they usually rise. Salah is chasing history. Isak is returning. Wirtz is rising. And Slot is slowly building belief again. These are not just players; they are pieces of a new story forming in front of our eyes.
Pep Guardiola knows this. He knows that Liverpool never come to the Etihad to bow down. In his press conference, he spoke confidently, saying his side “has weapons again” and that City will attack as usual. But somewhere inside him, he must remember how often Salah has punished them. How often Klopp’s Liverpool (now Slot’s Liverpool) have found a way to disrupt City’s rhythm. The crowd at the Etihad may try to drown out the noise, but the ghosts of past defeats still whisper.
Meanwhile, pundits have already started taking sides. Chris Sutton, the former striker turned analyst, said he has “switched sides” in the title race and now believes Liverpool can do it. Paul Scholes and Roy Keane couldn’t even agree on their predictions for this game, which tells you just how hard it is to call. One thing everyone agrees on: this match will not be boring. There is too much pride, too much history, and too much quality on both sides.
Fans, too, have been loud. In the Empire of the Kop comment section, one Liverpool supporter said it perfectly: “Computers and AI can compute anything they want. The most important thing is our team plays with confidence, consistency and stability. Let’s go!” Another added, “Period. Amen.” These are fans who have seen enough to know that football doesn’t obey algorithms. It obeys courage.
As matchday approaches, you can almost feel the tension rising in both cities. In Liverpool, the talk in cafes and barbershops is all about Salah’s record. Can he break it against City? Can he score one of those trademark curling finishes that silence the stadium? In Manchester, the discussion is about Haaland’s power and how unstoppable he can be when he starts scoring early. Two world-class forwards, two very different styles, both chasing history in the same 90 minutes.
Liverpool’s preparations have been intense. Training sessions have been focused on pressing triggers, quick transitions, and defensive compactness. Slot knows that City thrive when they can pass freely in midfield, so his plan will be to close those spaces quickly. With Wirtz floating between the lines and Mac Allister working like a machine beside him, Liverpool have the tools to cause chaos if they can break through City’s high line.
It’s also worth remembering that the last time these two teams met at the Etihad, Liverpool managed to create several dangerous moments even though they didn’t win. That match showed that City’s defensive shape can be stretched if the right players press the right zones. With Isak possibly returning, Liverpool could have a direct forward who runs into those spaces between Ruben Dias and Gvardiol. That could be the key difference.
Emotionally, Liverpool are in a good place. That win over Madrid restored confidence that had been slightly shaken after earlier struggles. Slot’s words after that game hit home: “We are Liverpool. We never stop believing. When we play with energy and intelligence, we can beat anyone.” That’s the message he’s carrying into this battle. Belief, discipline, and heart.
For City, it’s another test of consistency. Guardiola’s men have been dominant but not invincible. A few recent games have shown small cracks—moments when teams who pressed them high managed to create problems. That’s exactly the kind of opening Liverpool will look for. If they can force Ederson and his defenders into rushed passes, chaos could follow.
And while the world watches the tactical duel, there’s also a deeper emotional storyline. Salah, once again, stands as Liverpool’s talisman, chasing a record that would tie his name forever to the club’s history. He has already broken almost every scoring record imaginable, but surpassing Rooney’s mark would be another symbolic step. To do it against City, the team that has been Liverpool’s biggest challenge for years, would make it even sweeter.
As kickoff draws near, the statistics fade into background noise. The numbers may favour Guardiola’s men, but football has a way of rewarding passion. Liverpool’s dressing room will not be thinking about 45% or 27%. They will be thinking about pride, about revenge, about writing another unforgettable chapter. Every player knows that this is not just a match—it’s a statement to the rest of the Premier League.
Fans will fill the stands, songs will echo, and when the whistle blows, everything else will disappear. The supercomputer won’t matter. The only data that counts will be the one on the scoreboard at full-time. Maybe Salah will dance past defenders again. Maybe Haaland will roar back with power. Maybe Wirtz will write his name into Liverpool folklore with an assist no one saw coming. Anything can happen, and that’s what makes this sport beautiful.
Football’s beauty is that it belongs to humans, not algorithms. The same way Opta can simulate ten thousand games and still miss the one that really happens. The same way a small flick of Salah’s boot can change destiny in one second. That’s the magic no supercomputer can ever predict.
So when Liverpool step onto that pitch, they won’t be just fighting City—they’ll be fighting logic itself. And maybe, just maybe, that’s exactly how they like it. Because this is Liverpool, the team that turns statistics into stories, the team that turns doubt into energy. And on Sunday, at the Etihad, every Liverpool heart will beat as one. The numbers say 27%, but hearts say 100%. And sometimes, that’s all you need.
