Manchester City walk into today’s Manchester derby carrying far more than just the weight of rivalry. This is not just another Premier League game against Manchester United. This is a test of character, depth, belief, and survival for Pep Guardiola and his battered squad. Injuries have torn through City’s season, confidence has been shaken, and the title race is slowly slipping away. Yet here they are again, standing at the gates of Old Trafford, knowing that one result could either reignite their campaign or deepen the sense that this season is slipping beyond control.
The story of Manchester City’s season has changed dramatically over the last few weeks. What once looked like a familiar march toward another Premier League crown has turned into a struggle for rhythm and stability. Arsenal now sit six points clear at the top, and every dropped point feels heavier than ever. The reason is simple. City are broken at the back. Injuries have destroyed the defensive structure Guardiola built with such precision, and the Manchester derby arrives at the worst possible time.
Three of City’s most important defenders are missing, and not just short-term. Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, and John Stones are all ruled out long-term. These are not rotation players. These are leaders, organisers, and tactical pillars. Without them, City’s defensive identity has been stripped down to its bare bones. Pep Guardiola now finds himself improvising, adapting, and trusting players who were never meant to carry this level of responsibility at this stage.
At the heart of the defence, only Nathan Ake and Abdukodir Khusanov remain as senior centre-back options. Max Alleyne has been recalled from his loan spell at Watford, not because he is ready, but because City simply have no choice. This defensive crisis has forced City into the transfer market, accelerating talks with Crystal Palace for Marc Guehi. Palace boss Oliver Glasner has already confirmed that the deal is in its final stages, but for this derby, Guehi is not yet available. City must survive one more huge battle without reinforcement.
The injuries do not stop at centre-back. Out wide, Oscar Bobb and Savinho are also sidelined, reducing City’s attacking variety and pace. These losses would cripple most teams, but City have been slightly rescued by the early impact of Antoine Semenyo. The forward has hit the ground running since arriving at the Etihad, scoring goals and injecting energy into an attack that has looked predictable at times. Still, relying on a new signing to carry the load in a Manchester derby is a risk Guardiola would rather not take.
Despite all the chaos, one constant remains. Erling Haaland will lead the line. The Norwegian striker has scored 26 goals in 29 appearances this season, numbers that still place him among Europe’s most feared forwards. Yet even Haaland is human. He comes into this game on a rare dry spell, with just one goal in his last six matches. For City to leave Old Trafford with anything, Haaland must rediscover his ruthless edge, because chances may be limited.
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In goal, Guardiola is expected to recall Gianluigi Donnarumma. The Italian was rested during City’s incredible 10-1 FA Cup demolition of Exeter City, a match that felt more like a training exercise than a competitive fixture. Donnarumma’s presence brings authority and calm, especially important with an unfamiliar defensive line in front of him. His distribution, command of the area, and experience in big games will be crucial in a hostile Old Trafford atmosphere.
Guardiola’s rotation continued in midweek during the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg against Newcastle. That match revealed another layer of City’s careful management. Rodri, arguably the most important player in the squad, played just half an hour. After a long lay-off, Guardiola is easing him back slowly, knowing that rushing Rodri could lead to disaster. Today, Rodri is expected to start, anchoring the midfield and offering protection to a defence that desperately needs it.
The defensive setup almost picks itself because there are so few options. Matheus Nunes is expected to continue at right-back, a role far removed from his natural midfield position. Nathan Ake is likely to shift centrally alongside Khusanov, while Nico O’Reilly moves back into the left-back position after featuring in midfield against Newcastle. It is a makeshift back four, one built on necessity rather than design.
In midfield, Guardiola faces difficult decisions. Bernardo Silva played the full 90 minutes in midweek, showing his usual tireless work rate, but fatigue could be a concern. Phil Foden featured as the right-sided number eight but was substituted just after the hour, a decision that raised eyebrows. Tijjani Reijnders replaced him and brought energy and composure. There is a strong chance Reijnders starts in the derby, possibly at the expense of Silva, as Guardiola looks for balance between control and legs.
Rayan Cherki also made a strong impression off the bench against Newcastle, scoring after replacing Jeremy Doku late on. His creativity and confidence could tempt Guardiola into giving him a bigger role, especially in a game where moments of magic can decide everything. Doku’s pace remains a threat, but Cherki’s ability to operate in tight spaces could be vital against a United side that may sit deep and counter.
Nico Gonzalez remains a doubt and will undergo a late fitness test. His availability could offer Guardiola another option in midfield, but even if he is fit, it is unlikely he will be thrown straight into such a high-pressure match. Rayan Ait-Nouri’s brief two-minute appearance following his return from the Africa Cup of Nations was a welcome sight, but this derby will come too soon for him to start.
Speaking of AFCON, Omar Marmoush is still unavailable. Egypt’s semi-final defeat by Senegal means Marmoush will now contest the third-place playoff against Nigeria. His absence removes another attacking option, forcing Guardiola to lean even more heavily on players who are already carrying heavy workloads.
Across the city, Manchester United approach this derby with their own narrative. Michael Carrick takes charge for the lunchtime showdown, and Old Trafford will be desperate for a statement performance. United fans know that beating City, especially one weakened by injuries, would be more than just three points. It would be a declaration that they can still hurt their biggest rivals when it matters most.
For Guardiola, this game is about control in chaos. He knows his team is not at full strength. He knows his defence is patched together. He knows Arsenal are pulling away at the top of the table. But he also knows that Manchester City have built their legacy on moments like this, moments when they are doubted, moments when excuses are available but unacceptable.
The predicted lineup reflects both compromise and belief. Donnarumma in goal. Nunes, Khusanov, Ake, and O’Reilly across the back. Rodri shielding the defence. Semenyo and Doku offering width and directness. Foden and Reijnders providing creativity and intelligence. Haaland leading the line, waiting for the one chance that could silence Old Trafford.
This derby will not be perfect. It will not be polished. It will not look like the City of old dominating possession with effortless authority. Instead, it will be tense, physical, emotional, and unpredictable. City will need discipline. They will need resilience. They will need leaders to step up in the absence of those watching from the treatment room.
The injuries have changed the story, but they have not ended it. Guardiola knows that seasons are defined not by when everything goes right, but by how teams respond when everything goes wrong. Six points behind Arsenal is not an impossible gap, but only if City start winning games like this.
As the players walk out at Old Trafford, the noise will be deafening, the pressure suffocating, and the stakes enormous. This is more than a derby. This is Manchester City’s chance to prove that even in crisis, they remain a force to be feared. Whether they succeed or stumble, one thing is certain. This Manchester derby will be remembered not for comfort or confidence, but for courage in the face of adversity.
