Pep Guardiola has become the latest high-profile Premier League manager to find himself under intense scrutiny as Manchester City’s season continues to unravel in unexpected and uncomfortable ways. Once considered almost untouchable at the Etihad Stadium, the Spaniard is now facing a level of pressure that few could have imagined only months ago, with bookmakers dramatically slashing their odds on Guardiola becoming the next manager to leave the Premier League following a series of damaging results and a sudden overnight shift in sentiment.
For nearly a decade, Guardiola has been the defining figure of Manchester City’s modern era, transforming the club into one of the most dominant forces English football has ever seen. League titles, domestic cups, European glory, and record-breaking performances became the norm under his leadership. Yet football has a ruthless habit of erasing the past, and in recent weeks, Guardiola’s sky-high standards have proven increasingly difficult to maintain as City stumble through one of their most turbulent periods in years.
The sense of decline has not come from one single defeat or a brief dip in form, but from an accumulation of performances that suggest something deeper is wrong. Manchester City’s recent run of results has shocked supporters, rivals, and analysts alike, culminating in a 3–1 defeat away to Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League on Tuesday night, a result that will go down as one of the most surprising upsets in the competition’s long history. For a club built to dominate Europe, losing convincingly to a side many expected City to brush aside has only intensified questions about direction, motivation, and control.
That defeat was not an isolated incident. It arrived against the backdrop of a Premier League campaign that is slipping steadily out of Guardiola’s grasp. City, once perennial title favourites, now find themselves trailing in the race and increasingly reliant on other teams dropping points. Performances have lacked their usual fluency, the press has been less effective, defensive lapses have crept in, and the aura of inevitability that once surrounded Guardiola’s City has noticeably faded.
As the pressure mounts, the betting markets have reacted swiftly. Guardiola, who was not even considered among the leading candidates to leave his post at the start of the week, has surged up the list of potential managerial departures almost overnight. One major bookmaker now lists him as the third-favourite to be the next Premier League manager to leave, priced at 5/1 following a dramatic collapse in odds that reflects the growing uncertainty surrounding his future.
The shift is striking. At the beginning of the week, Guardiola was viewed as one of the safest managers in the division, protected by past success, institutional trust, and a reputation that transcends short-term results. The fact that his odds have moved so sharply in such a short space of time underlines just how quickly narratives can change in modern football, particularly when expectations are as high as they are at Manchester City.
Guardiola’s tenure at the Etihad Stadium has now stretched close to ten years, a remarkable length of service in an era where managerial churn is the norm. During that time, he has overseen a golden age, redefining what domestic dominance looks like and setting benchmarks that may stand for decades. However, recent campaigns have not delivered the same sense of invincibility, and this season’s struggles have only amplified long-standing whispers that Guardiola’s cycle at City may be nearing its natural conclusion.
There has been no official suggestion from the club that Guardiola’s position is under immediate threat, and there is no indication that Manchester City are actively seeking a replacement. Yet football rarely operates purely on official statements. Mood, momentum, and perception matter, and right now, all three are shifting in ways that make Guardiola’s future a legitimate talking point rather than an unthinkable scenario.
Those close to the club insist that Guardiola remains fully committed, working tirelessly to arrest the slide and rediscover the standards that once defined his team. Training sessions are said to be intense, with the manager pushing his players relentlessly in search of answers. But even Guardiola himself has admitted in recent weeks that the margins are no longer falling City’s way, a rare acknowledgement from a coach who has built his career on control and precision.
The Premier League title, once considered the minimum expectation at the Etihad, now appears increasingly out of reach. Rivals have taken advantage of City’s stumbles, while Guardiola’s side have struggled to respond with the authority that once came so naturally. Injuries, fatigue, tactical tweaks that have not paid off, and a sense of mental weariness have all been cited as contributing factors, but excuses carry little weight at a club accustomed to winning.
As Guardiola’s odds shorten, attention has naturally turned to the wider managerial landscape in the Premier League. At present, the manager most strongly fancied to be the next to leave is Thomas Frank, now in charge at Tottenham. The Dane, who previously earned widespread praise for his work at Brentford, is currently priced at evens to be dismissed, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with Spurs’ position in the table.
Despite a promising start to his tenure in North London, Frank has struggled to maintain momentum, with Tottenham languishing in 14th place and performances failing to convince supporters or pundits. Expectations at Spurs are notoriously unforgiving, and patience is wearing thin as results fail to improve. In that context, Frank’s position appears far more immediately vulnerable than Guardiola’s, even if City’s problems are more surprising.
Behind Frank in the betting comes Oliver Glasner, the Crystal Palace manager, who is priced at 9/4 to be the next Premier League boss to depart. Glasner’s struggles have been particularly stark in the new year, with Palace failing to gain traction and suffering a humiliating FA Cup defeat to Macclesfield, a result that sent shockwaves through the competition. For a club desperate for stability, such setbacks have only heightened the sense of unease.
Guardiola’s presence so high on the list, however, is what has truly captured attention. Potential outsiders include Nuno Espirito Santo at West Ham and Arne Slot at Liverpool, priced at 8/1 and 10/1 respectively. Both managers operate at opposite ends of the table, yet each is considered to be underperforming relative to expectations. Even so, neither carries the symbolic weight of Guardiola’s potential departure.
The idea of Pep Guardiola leaving Manchester City, whether by choice or circumstance, would represent a seismic moment in Premier League history. His influence extends far beyond results, shaping how teams approach possession, pressing, and tactical flexibility across the league. Many managers openly credit Guardiola for changing English football’s tactical landscape, making his possible exit not just a club issue, but a league-wide event.
It is important to note that odds movements do not equate to inevitability. Betting markets reflect perception and speculation as much as reality, and football has a long history of dramatic swings that ultimately amount to nothing. Guardiola himself has weathered storms before, responding to adversity with reinvention and renewed dominance. Those who know him well believe writing him off would be a mistake.
Yet there is also a sense that cycles in football rarely last forever. Guardiola’s methods demand immense mental and physical investment from players, and after nearly a decade, fatigue can set in on both sides. Some observers believe City may be approaching a crossroads, where evolution becomes unavoidable, whether under Guardiola or a successor.
For now, Manchester City’s hierarchy remains calm in public, showing no sign of panic or haste. Guardiola continues to enjoy immense respect within the club, and his achievements have earned him a level of goodwill few managers ever receive. Still, football is ultimately a results-driven business, and sustained decline, however gradual, eventually forces difficult conversations.
With plenty of the season still to play, everything remains in flux. A strong run of results could quickly reverse the narrative, pushing Guardiola back down the betting lists and restoring confidence among supporters. Conversely, further disappointments would only intensify scrutiny and keep his name firmly in discussions about managerial change.
As things stand, Pep Guardiola finds himself in unfamiliar territory, no longer insulated by inevitability, but exposed to the same harsh realities that govern every Premier League manager. Whether this moment becomes a footnote in another comeback story or the beginning of a dramatic end to an era remains to be seen. What is certain is that the Premier League, once again, has reminded everyone that no reputation is immune, and no reign lasts forever.
