Stefan Borson shares Man City 115 charges warning after analysing ‘interesting’ new document

The story of Lucas Paqueta and the case that surrounded him has now become one of the most dramatic episodes in English football in recent years, not only because of what it meant for the West Ham midfielder himself but also because of the way it connects with Manchester City’s never-ending 115 charges battle with the Premier League. What happened to Paqueta is now being used as a warning and as a mirror of what might come for Pep Guardiola’s side when their own verdict finally arrives, a verdict that has kept football fans waiting for years and which could change the face of English football forever.

When Lucas Paqueta first came to England he carried the reputation of being a Brazilian magician, the kind of midfielder who could glide across the pitch, create chances out of nothing and bring joy to the fans. West Ham paid big money to bring him from Lyon and he quickly became one of the most technically gifted players ever to wear the claret and blue shirt. But just when his career seemed ready to take the next step, everything changed. Last year he was charged by the Football Association with spot-fixing. It was a shock that sent tremors not only through West Ham but also across the entire Premier League because Paqueta had been close to joining Manchester City in a huge transfer that would have placed him under Pep Guardiola’s command. Suddenly his dream move collapsed and instead of celebrating a career-defining transfer he was locked in a legal battle trying to clear his name

The FA claimed that certain betting patterns around yellow cards in games where Paqueta played pointed to something suspicious. To the wider football world it looked like the type of scandal that could ruin a career. Paqueta denied all wrongdoing and insisted he had never been involved in anything illegal, but he had to wait months and months before the case went before an independent regulatory commission. The hearing stretched from March to May and finally in July it was announced that Paqueta had been cleared. The commission’s official reasons, a staggering 314-page document, showed that the FA’s evidence was not strong enough and the case was found “not proven.” For Paqueta it was vindication but it had already cost him his move to City and damaged his reputation in the eyes of some fans.

What has now made the case even more dramatic is the decision of the FA not to appeal. On 3 September it was confirmed that they will not be taking it further, meaning Paqueta is completely free of the charges. For him and for West Ham it was relief and a chance to move on, but the echoes of this case now reach far beyond the London Stadium. Stefan Borson, a former financial adviser to Manchester City, looked at the Paqueta case and immediately drew a line towards the ongoing saga of City’s 115 charges. According to Borson, the sheer size and length of the Paqueta judgement is a warning of what is to come for City. If a single player’s case took 314 pages of legal reasoning, then a case involving nine years of alleged breaches, hundreds of documents and accusations of financial manipulation is going to be enormous.

Manchester City were charged back in February 2023 with 115 breaches of financial rules. These cover a long period from 2009 to 2018, a period when City transformed from rich pretenders into serial winners, lifting Premier League titles and becoming a global powerhouse. The Premier League believes City manipulated sponsorship deals and financial statements to get around financial fair play rules. City have denied all wrongdoing and claim they have irrefutable evidence to clear their name. The independent commission began hearing the case in September last year and finished in December, but nine months later the football world is still waiting for the verdict. Every time fans think the announcement is near it gets delayed again. The silence has only made the anticipation grow.

Borson explained that the Paqueta case is a “forewarning.” He said the City verdict will be “war and peace,” a document probably double or even more than the 314 pages used for Paqueta. He warned that while the verdict will dominate headlines, most people will never read the full report because of its length and complexity. But within those pages will be the future of City’s reputation, their trophies, their history and perhaps even their place in the Premier League.

The commission in Paqueta’s case was scathing of the FA’s approach. They said aspects of the case were “surprising” and “concerning,” pointing out that the FA had not even sought independent expertise on the betting data that was at the centre of the charges. That lack of depth in the investigation played a huge role in the case collapsing. For City this is both encouraging and worrying. Encouraging because if the Premier League’s evidence is weak or incomplete then the charges could fall apart in the same way. Worrying because if the evidence is strong and supported by proper expertise, then the commission may take a very tough line. The Paqueta case shows how seriously these independent panels take their role, and how they are not afraid to criticise governing bodies.

For Paqueta himself, the case might be over but the consequences remain. The Times reported that he and West Ham are considering legal action against the FA for damages. He lost a career-changing transfer to Manchester City in 2023, a move that would have seen him play alongside Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden under Guardiola’s management. The collapsed transfer was worth tens of millions, and Paqueta’s camp may argue that the FA’s weak case has cost him financially and professionally. It could turn into yet another legal battle with the governing body, keeping the midfielder’s name in the headlines long after he just wants to focus on football.

Ironically, despite all the drama, Paqueta’s form has remained strong. He was linked with City again this summer after being cleared, but West Ham under Graham Potter made it clear he was not going anywhere. Potter told the board that Paqueta was too important, too central to his plans for the season, and the player stayed at the London Stadium. On 31 August he scored a penalty in West Ham’s 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest, showing that he still has the confidence and the ability to deliver in the Premier League. For the West Ham fans who adore him, his commitment is all they care about. But the shadow of what might have been at City will always hang over his career.

For Manchester City, the parallels with Paqueta’s case are uncomfortable. Just as West Ham’s star man had to wait more than a year for his name to be cleared, City have now been waiting years to know their fate. Just as the Paqueta case came down to the strength of the FA’s evidence and the independence of the commission, so too will City’s case be decided. And just as Paqueta’s name was dragged through the mud before being declared innocent, City are facing constant speculation, media attacks and rival fans accusing them of cheating before any verdict has been given. Guardiola has spoken many times of how tired he is of the talk, how it affects his players, and how they just want the truth to come out.

Borson’s words echo in the background of it all. He described the Paqueta judgement as “interesting” but very long, a taste of what awaits when the City decision is finally published. The world of football will explode with headlines, accusations, defences, spin and counter-spin. Legal experts will dissect every paragraph, rivals will demand punishments, City fans will defend their club with passion, and the Premier League will stand by its case. It will not just be a verdict, it will be a war of words, a battle of perception and a test of trust in English football governance.

The case of Lucas Paqueta is therefore more than just the story of one Brazilian footballer clearing his name. It is a lesson in how long and how complex football’s legal battles can be, and a glimpse into the future of the sport’s biggest ongoing case. It shows how careers can be turned upside down, how transfers can collapse, how clubs can be forced into uncertainty and how the football world can be held in suspense by the slow wheels of justice. For West Ham it ended with relief and the joy of keeping their playmaker. For City the end is still unknown, and that unknown is heavier and darker than anything Paqueta faced.

When the verdict finally comes, it could shake the foundations of the Premier League. If City are cleared, they will claim complete vindication and demand respect after years of accusations. If they are found guilty, the punishments could range from fines to points deductions to even expulsion from the league, though no one truly knows what the commission will decide. The only certainty is that it will be long, it will be complicated, and it will change football forever.

And so as Lucas Paqueta moves forward with his career, scoring goals and winning games for West Ham, his case remains a warning sign and a symbol. The Premier League has already seen how one player’s fate can depend on the depth of investigation and the sharpness of the evidence. Now the biggest club in the country waits to discover whether their decade of dominance was built on fair competition or something else entirely.