The former Premier League chief has predicted a major points deduction for Man City if the 115 charges ruling doesn’t go their way – but stated the saga could still drag on for another year

A former Premier League chief has predicted that Manchester City could face a substantial points deduction if the verdict on the club’s 115 financial charges goes against them, though he also warned that the long-running case may not be resolved quickly and could drag on for another year.

The reigning champions have been under investigation since being charged in February 2023 with 115 alleged breaches of the league’s financial regulations, covering a period between 2009 and 2018. The allegations relate to areas such as the accuracy of financial reporting, sponsorship revenue disclosures, and compliance with UEFA’s Financial Fair Play framework, as well as rules around manager and player remuneration and cooperation with league investigations.

Manchester City have consistently denied any wrongdoing and have stated that they possess a “comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence” to support their position. The case has been heard by an independent commission, with proceedings conducted privately. Because of the complexity and volume of evidence involved, the process has taken significantly longer than many initially expected.

The former league executive suggested that if the commission rules against Cityj on a significant number of the charges, the punishment could be severe. A major points deduction — potentially large enough to derail a title challenge or even impact their league status — has been floated as a realistic outcome under the competition’s rulebook. Other possible sanctions could include heavy fines, transfer restrictions, or in the most extreme scenario, expulsion from the league, though such an outcome is widely considered unlikely.

In recent seasons, the league has demonstrated its willingness to impose sporting sanctions for financial breaches. Clubs such as Everton and Nottingham Forest have both received points deductions for breaching profitability and sustainability regulations. Those cases, however, involved far fewer charges and were resolved far more quickly than the ongoing proceedings involving Manchester City.

The scale and historical span of the 115 charges make this case unprecedented in English football. Legal experts have previously indicated that any decision — whichever way it goes — could be subject to appeal, potentially extending the saga even further. If City are cleared, the league itself could face scrutiny over the length and handling of the investigation. If they are found guilty, the club would almost certainly explore every legal avenue available to challenge the ruling.

The former chief emphasised that the drawn-out nature of the case has created uncertainty across the division. Rival clubs, supporters and commercial partners are all waiting for clarity. The timing of any punishment could also have major implications. For example, a points deduction applied mid-season would directly alter the competitive landscape, while one imposed after a campaign concludes could retrospectively change league standings, qualification spots for European competitions, or even relegation outcomes.

He also pointed out that the independent commission must consider proportionality and consistency when determining any sanction. Given the precedent set in recent cases, a minor fine alone would likely be viewed as insufficient if serious breaches were proven. Conversely, an excessively harsh penalty could trigger prolonged appeals and further legal disputes, prolonging the uncertainty.

For City, the stakes are enormous. Under Pep Guardiola, the club have dominated domestically, securing multiple league titles and finally lifting the Champions League trophy in 2023. Their sustained success has coincided with significant commercial growth and global expansion. Any ruling that undermines the integrity of that period would have far-reaching sporting and reputational consequences.

Despite the speculation, there is still no confirmed date for when the commission will publish its findings. The former executive suggested that, given the legal complexity, fans may need to prepare for the possibility that the situation remains unresolved well into next year. Appeals processes, procedural challenges, and potential arbitration could all add months to the timeline.

Until a verdict is delivered, Manchester City continue to compete as normal in domestic and European competitions. The club’s focus publicly remains on footballing matters, while behind the scenes their legal team prepares for every possible outcome.

Whether the case ends with vindication or punishment, it is set to become one of the most significant regulatory decisions in the history of the Premier League. The ramifications — sporting, financial and political — could shape the competition for years to come.