The road to Wembley enters its penultimate stage as Manchester City prepares to travel to the North East for a heavyweight EFL Cup semi-final first leg against Newcastle United on January 13, 2026.
Pep Guardiola’s side arrives at St. James’ Park in blistering goal-scoring form, fresh off a historic 10-1 demolition of Exeter City in the FA Cup. However, beneath the surface of that double-digit victory lies a burgeoning selection crisis. As the Citizens aim for their first League Cup trophy since 2021, a decimated defensive line and key absences in the final third threaten to derail their momentum against the tournament’s defending champions.

1. The Defensive Injury Crisis: A Rebuilt Backline
The most significant hurdle for Manchester City heading into Tuesday night is the state of their defense. Guardiola is currently grappling with the loss of three primary center-back options, forcing a total tactical rethink.
Ruben Dias (Hamstring)
Status: Out
Estimated Return: Late February
The Portuguese “General” remains sidelined following a severe hamstring injury sustained against Chelsea. Dias is the vocal leader of the City defense, and his absence at a stadium as hostile as St. James’ Park is a massive blow. His projected return for the return fixture in late February highlights the long-term nature of his recovery.
Josko Gvardiol (Tibial Fracture)
Status: Out

Estimated Return: Unknown (Long-term)
In what is perhaps the most devastating blow to City’s season, Gvardiol is beginning a lengthy rehabilitation process following surgery on a fractured tibia. The Croatian’s ability to drive forward from the back and defend in 1-on-1 transitions will be sorely missed, especially against Newcastle’s pace on the wings.
John Stones (Thigh)
Status: Out

Estimated Return: Unknown
Stones has been absent since early December. His unique ability to “invert” into the midfield is central to Guardiola’s tactical setup. Without him, City’s build-up play often becomes more static, placing more pressure on Rodri to dictate the tempo alone.
2. Midfield and Attacking Absences
While the defense is the primary concern, the squad depth is being tested across the pitch.

Savinho (Unspecified): The Brazilian winger, who has been a revelation this season, is expected to be out for up to eight weeks. His flair and unpredictability provided City with a vital outlet during tight games.

Oscar Bobb (Hamstring): The young Norwegian is nearing a return, likely targeting the Champions League clash with Galatasaray. However, the first leg against Newcastle comes too soon for him.
* Mateo Kovacic (Ankle/Heel): Kovacic’s season has been plagued by complications following Achilles surgery. With only two appearances this term, his absence limits Guardiola’s ability to rotate his veteran midfielders during this congested January schedule.

Omar Marmoush (International Duty): Adding to the attacking shortage, Marmoush is currently unavailable as he represents Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).
3. Match Context: The Newcastle Hurdle
Newcastle United enters this fixture as the current EFL Cup holders, and they possess a psychological edge that few teams in England can claim.
The St. James’ Park Fortress
While Manchester City boasts a 12-game unbeaten run, their last domestic defeat came at the hands of the Magpies in an away fixture back in November. Newcastle’s high-pressing system and the atmospheric “cauldron” of their home ground have proven to be the kryptonite for Guardiola’s possession-based style.
Tactical Outlook
With Dias, Gvardiol, and Stones out, Newcastle manager Eddie Howe will likely instruct his forwards to press City’s makeshift backline—likely featuring Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji—intensely from the first whistle.
4. Predicted Availability & Team News Summary
| Player | Injury/Reason | Expected Return |
|—|—|—|
| Ruben Dias | Hamstring | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Josko Gvardiol | Tibial Fracture | Months away |
| John Stones | Thigh | Unknown |
| Savinho | Unspecified | Late Feb 2026 |
| Oscar Bobb | Hamstring | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Mateo Kovacic | Ankle/Heel | Unknown |
| Omar Marmoush | AFCON | Mid-February |
Conclusion
Manchester City’s 10-1 win over Exeter proved they have the firepower to hurt anyone, but the EFL Cup semi-final is a different beast entirely. Facing the defending champions away from home with a skeleton defense is arguably Pep Guardiola’s toughest challenge of the 2025-26 campaign so far. To leave Tyneside with a positive result, City will need to rely on their clinical efficiency in front of goal to mask their structural vulnerabilities at the back.
Would you like me to generate a predicted starting XI for Manchester City based on these available players?