Manchester City’s win against Liverpool at Anfield was one of those nights that instantly made football fans stop, look again at the Premier League table, and start asking big questions. Beating Liverpool away from home is never easy. Doing it with control, confidence, and authority makes it even louder. For a few hours after the final whistle, it felt like the title race had suddenly come back to life. Pundits began to talk again. Fans started dreaming. Social media exploded with claims that the race was back on, that Arsenal might finally feel pressure, and that Manchester City were ready to hunt them down like they have done to so many teams before.
But when all the noise settled, when emotions cooled and numbers were checked, the reality was far less dramatic than many expected. Despite Manchester City’s impressive victory, Arsenal are still firmly in control of the Premier League title race. According to Opta’s supercomputer, the Gunners still have around a 90 percent chance of winning the league. That number alone tells a powerful story. It shows that while City’s win mattered, it did not change the bigger picture as much as people hoped.
Before the Liverpool match, Arsenal were sitting comfortably at the top of the table. They had built a strong lead through consistency, discipline, and calm performances week after week. Manchester City, meanwhile, were chasing, knowing very well that every dropped point could be fatal. When City arrived at Anfield, many believed this was a must-win game. A draw would not be enough. A loss would almost end their title hopes. Victory was the only option if they wanted to keep believing.
City delivered exactly that. They went to Anfield and played with confidence. They handled the pressure, controlled key moments, and showed the experience of champions. Liverpool tried to push, the crowd tried to lift them, but City stayed focused. When the final whistle blew, it felt like a big statement. Many fans thought the gap had suddenly closed in a meaningful way.
Yet, when you look at the table, the change was small. Arsenal had gone into the weekend with a nine-point lead. After City’s win and Arsenal’s comfortable victory against Sunderland, the gap became six points. Six points is not nothing, but it is still a strong cushion at this stage of the season. Arsenal remained on 56 points, City on 50, after 25 games played. The leaders were still the leaders, and the pressure was still firmly on the chasing side.
This is where the excitement of football meets the cold reality of data. The Opta supercomputer does not deal in emotion. It does not care about big stadiums, famous wins, or dramatic nights. It looks at fixtures, form, squad strength, and probability. Before City even kicked off at Anfield, Arsenal already had a massive 93.64 percent chance of winning the league. Manchester City were far behind at just 4.55 percent. That alone showed how dominant Arsenal’s position had become.
After City’s win, those numbers did move, but only slightly. Arsenal’s chances dropped from 93.64 percent to around 90.14 percent. City’s chances rose from 4.55 percent to about 8.15 percent. That is an increase, yes, but it is not a revolution. It is not the kind of swing you expect when a champion beats a major rival away from home. It was a reminder that one big result does not erase months of consistent work.
The reason for this is simple. Arsenal’s season has been built on control. They win the games they are expected to win. They manage difficult moments. They do not panic. Even when others talk about pressure, they stay calm. This is why the numbers still favour them so heavily. The supercomputer sees what Arsenal fans are starting to believe. This is not just a good run. This is a title-winning campaign.
Another key reason why Arsenal remain strong favourites is their remaining fixture list. While every Premier League game is difficult, Arsenal’s run-in looks kinder compared to Manchester City’s. The Gunners still have challenges, but many of their hardest away games are already behind them. They have already traveled to face some of the toughest teams in the league, including Aston Villa, Manchester United, and Liverpool. They survived those trips and came away with valuable points.
Now, Arsenal face a run that, while still demanding, does not look overwhelming. They have three straight away games coming up, starting with Brentford. That is followed by Wolves. What makes this interesting is that most of Arsenal’s remaining away matches are within London or nearby. Travel fatigue is reduced. Familiar environments help. The rhythm remains stable.
Even more impressive is the fact that Arsenal have already played eight of the current top ten teams away from home. That is not easy. That is the kind of schedule that usually derails title hopes. Instead, Arsenal came through it stronger. The only major away test left is Manchester City at the Etihad. That match could be huge, but even that alone may not be enough to swing the title race unless Arsenal completely collapse elsewhere.
Manchester City’s situation is very different. While they are experienced, while they know how to win titles, their remaining fixtures are tougher. They still have to travel to places like Chelsea and Everton. They still have tricky home games against teams like Brentford and Aston Villa. And most importantly, they still have to face Arsenal themselves. That match is not just another game. It is a potential six-pointer, a pressure cooker, a moment that could define the season.
This difference in fixture difficulty is one of the biggest reasons why Opta’s numbers barely changed after the Anfield win. City did what they had to do, but they still have a mountain to climb. Arsenal, meanwhile, have a clear road ahead. They just need to keep walking.
Mikel Arteta knows this better than anyone. He has repeated the same message again and again. One game at a time. No talk of titles. No talk of celebrations. Just focus on the next match. That approach has been key to Arsenal’s rise. It keeps the squad grounded. It removes unnecessary pressure. It allows players to focus on performance rather than outcome.
Arsenal fans, of course, are nervous. They remember past seasons. They remember collapses, missed chances, and late heartbreak. The mention of point gaps always brings back painful memories. Three-point leads lost. Eight-point cushions disappearing. But this time feels different. The team feels stronger. More mature. More balanced.
The Opta numbers back this up. A 90 percent chance of winning the league is massive. It means that in nine out of ten simulations, Arsenal end up lifting the trophy. That is not luck. That is dominance. That is consistency being rewarded.
Manchester City deserve credit for staying alive in the race. Many teams would have folded under the pressure. City did not. They went to Anfield and showed character. They reminded everyone why they are champions. But even champions have limits, and this season, Arsenal have pushed those limits hard.
For City to win the league now, they need more than just good performances. They need Arsenal to stumble. They need dropped points. They need mistakes. And they need to be perfect themselves. That is a lot to ask in a league as brutal as the Premier League.
Arsenal, on the other hand, control their own destiny. Six points clear. A favourable run-in. Confidence high. Belief growing. The numbers, the form, and the fixtures all point in the same direction. This is their title to lose.
Nothing is decided yet. Football always finds ways to surprise. One red card, one injury, one bad decision can change everything. But right now, Arsenal are doing everything right. And even a huge Manchester City win at Anfield was not enough to shake that foundation.
The title race may feel alive again, but the truth is simple. Arsenal are still in charge. The pressure is still on Manchester City. And unless something truly special happens, the Premier League trophy is edging closer and closer to North London.
