One side has considerably harder remaining fixtures than their title rivals

As the 2025/26 Premier League season edges closer to its dramatic conclusion, the table begins to take on sharper meaning. Every point gained feels heavier. Every dropped result carries consequence. The business end of the campaign has arrived, and while the margins at the top remain tight, three clubs have separated themselves from the chasing pack: Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa.

With just over a quarter of the season left to play, the title race is finely poised. Arsenal sit top of the standings, Manchester City are within striking distance, and Aston Villa are refusing to fade away. Liverpool, despite enormous investment last summer, have struggled to maintain consistency, leaving the door ajar for others. The championship is no longer a distant ambition; it is a tangible prize that will be decided over the next few relentless months.

At the time of assessment, Arsenal lead the way. After 27 matches, they have accumulated 58 points from 17 wins, seven draws and just three defeats. They have scored 52 goals and conceded only 20, boasting a goal difference of +32. Manchester City follow with 53 points from 26 matches, their +30 goal difference keeping them firmly in contention. Aston Villa, perhaps the most surprising name in the trio, have 50 points from 26 games and remain very much in the conversation.

But league tables alone do not tell the full story. What often defines a title race is not only quality, but schedule. The sequence of opponents, the balance between home and away fixtures, and the timing of direct clashes can tilt the scales. By analysing the average league position of remaining opponents, a clearer picture emerges of which contender faces the steepest path and who may benefit from a kinder run-in.

Manchester City, under Pep Guardiola, appear to have the most challenging schedule of the three. That statement alone carries intrigue. City are serial winners, the only side in Premier League history to capture four consecutive titles between 2020/21 and 2023/24. They understand pressure. They thrive under it. Yet even for them, the road ahead is anything but straightforward.

Their immediate fixtures, on paper, offer opportunity. Newcastle United visit the Etihad Stadium. Leeds United away at Elland Road follows. Nottingham Forest at home and West Ham United in London round off a sequence City will expect to navigate successfully. These matches present the chance to build momentum, apply pressure on Arsenal, and ensure the title remains within reach before the calendar flips deeper into spring.

However, the difficulty escalates dramatically thereafter. A trip to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea looms. The Blues, sitting fifth, remain capable of disrupting any contender on their day. Then comes what could prove the defining fixture of the entire season: Arsenal travelling to the Etihad Stadium on April 18. It is the type of encounter that shapes legacies. A six-pointer in every sense. Victory for City would close the gap or even overturn it, depending on preceding results. Defeat could widen the divide and hand psychological advantage to the North Londoners.

After that seismic showdown, City must quickly refocus for away trips to Burnley and Everton. The latter, positioned eighth, are far from pushovers, particularly on home soil. Brentford, one of the campaign’s surprise packages in seventh, visit Manchester before City travel to Bournemouth. The season concludes with Aston Villa at the Etihad Stadium — a fixture that once delivered a title in dramatic fashion during 2021/22. Should both teams remain in contention, the narrative possibilities are immense.

Overall, Manchester City’s remaining opponents hold an average league position of 10.4, the toughest of the trio. It is not just the quality of opposition, but the clustering of high-stakes matches that creates complexity. Guardiola’s side must balance attacking brilliance — often spearheaded by Erling Haaland — with improved defensive resilience if they are to leapfrog Arsenal once more.

Arsenal, meanwhile, find themselves positioned between difficulty and opportunity. Mikel Arteta’s side have shown maturity this season, combining defensive solidity with timely attacking contributions. Their record of 17 wins from 27 matches highlights consistency, while conceding only 20 goals underscores their structural discipline.

Their run-in begins with an emotionally charged North London derby away to Tottenham Hotspur. Derby matches rarely follow league logic. Form can be distorted by intensity. Tottenham, under new leadership after managerial change earlier in the season, may approach the clash with renewed edge. For Arsenal, it is both a test and a statement opportunity.

Chelsea then travel to the Emirates Stadium, marking the beginning of a challenging sequence. Brighton away, Everton away, Bournemouth at home, Manchester City away and Newcastle at home form a cluster of fixtures that could either cement Arsenal’s credentials or expose fragility. The away trip to City in particular carries immense weight. If Arsenal arrive leading the table, the psychological stakes will be enormous. If trailing, it becomes a must-win.

Yet the final stretch of Arsenal’s campaign appears comparatively smoother. Fulham, West Ham United, Burnley and Crystal Palace comprise their closing quartet. None of these sides currently sit in the top half. Should Arsenal maintain composure through April, May may offer a clearer runway to glory.

The average league position of Arsenal’s remaining opponents is 11.5. Slightly easier than City’s, though far from simple. The key variable lies in momentum. If Arteta’s side continue their defensive consistency and avoid lapses in front of goal, the structure of their schedule could favour them.

Aston Villa’s narrative perhaps captures imagination most vividly. After a difficult start to the season, when victories were scarce and goals even scarcer, few predicted they would stand shoulder to shoulder with Arsenal and Manchester City deep into February. Yet Unai Emery’s tactical acumen and the squad’s adaptability have propelled them into contention.

Statistically, Villa possess the easiest average run-in among the trio, with remaining opponents averaging a league position of 12.1. That margin, though slim, could prove decisive in a tight race.

Their schedule opens with Leeds United at Villa Park, followed by Wolverhampton Wanderers away — a side currently struggling at the foot of the table. Chelsea at home and Manchester United away present sterner challenges, yet Villa have demonstrated capacity to compete with established powers.

West Ham United, Nottingham Forest, Sunderland and Fulham follow, offering opportunities to collect consistent points. Tottenham at home and Burnley away precede what may be a defining fortnight: Liverpool visiting Villa Park and Manchester City away on the final day.

If Villa remain within touching distance entering those last two fixtures, the drama could rival any previous Premier League climax. Emery’s experience in European competitions has cultivated calmness under pressure. Whether that translates into domestic title composure remains to be seen.

What complicates the analysis further is unpredictability. Leicester City’s remarkable 2015/16 triumph remains etched in Premier League folklore as proof that logic can be overturned. Form fluctuates. Injuries disrupt. Momentum swings. A seemingly straightforward fixture can transform into a stumbling block.

For Manchester City, the equation is familiar: apply pressure, peak at the right moment, and capitalise on any Arsenal slip. Their experience in title races is unparalleled. Guardiola has repeatedly orchestrated late surges, turning deficits into championships.

For Arsenal, this represents an opportunity to end a prolonged wait for league glory. Since 2003/04, they have chased the crown without reclaiming it. Arteta’s project appears matured. The defensive metrics are elite. The challenge lies in sustaining intensity when expectation grows heavier with each passing week.

For Aston Villa, the position is both liberating and demanding. They are perceived as outsiders, yet their proximity to the summit invites belief. Managing that belief without allowing it to morph into pressure will define their final months.

Ultimately, fixture difficulty offers insight, not destiny. Manchester City’s tougher average schedule does not guarantee struggle. Arsenal’s smoother finish does not ensure triumph. Aston Villa’s marginally easier path does not promise fairy tale success.

The convergence of direct clashes — particularly City versus Arsenal and City versus Villa — injects layers of complexity. Points will be taken directly from rivals. Goal difference may come into play. Psychological momentum could shift within a single afternoon.

As February transitions into March and April, narratives will intensify. Analysts will dissect each result. Supporters will calculate permutations. Every substitution, every refereeing decision, every late goal will ripple through the title race.

The 2025/26 Premier League season has evolved from open contest to focused duel — or perhaps trio. Arsenal lead. Manchester City pursue with relentless familiarity. Aston Villa linger with quiet ambition. Eleven or twelve fixtures remain for each contender. Thirty-three to thirty-six potential points. A campaign defined not by early promise, but by endurance.

When May arrives and the final whistle blows on the last matchday, the table will crystallise into permanence. Whether Arsenal maintain their advantage, City execute another clinical overtaking manoeuvre, or Villa script an improbable ascent, the run-in promises tension worthy of the league’s global stature.

The business end has begun. The margins are slim. The schedule is set. Now, only performance will determine who lifts the trophy.