Rangers predicted XI vs Kilmarnock as Derek McInnes faces formation dilemma on return from international break
Derek McInnes has spent three weeks waiting for this one. When Rangers walk out at Ibrox on Saturday afternoon to face Kilmarnock, it will be nineteen days since the last competitive match, a 1-0 win at Celtic Park that capped a run of six consecutive victories and sent the club into an international break it never wanted. The manager has been open about his frustration with the length of the lay-off, but now the waiting is over and the questions turn to the team sheet. Most of the eleven picks itself. A few spots do not, and the shape of the side is the biggest decision of all.
The context makes the selection more interesting than it might first appear. Rangers are two points behind Celtic and can go top of the Premiership, at least for a day, because their rivals do not play until Sunday at Motherwell. The opponents are bottom of the table, have conceded more goals than anyone in the division, and have won only one league game all season. On paper it is the kind of fixture a settled team should win comfortably. In practice, McInnes knows better than most that post-break matches have a way of turning awkward.
He has personal evidence for that. Last season, as Hearts manager, he watched Rangers return from their first international break looking flat and sluggish under Russell Martin, and his side won 2-0 at Ibrox with both goals coming from Lawrence Shankland, who is now the Rangers captain. McInnes was the man who set that trap. Now he is the one who has to avoid walking into it, and he has spent the week stressing that the squad cannot treat the weekend as a formality simply because the opposition sit at the bottom of the table.
The personnel picture, thankfully, is far kinder than it might have been. All thirteen internationalists returned from their countries without injury, including Ivor Pandur, Olwethu Makhanya, Nicolas Raskin, Minsu Kim and Ryan Naderi. Dujon Sterling has shaken off the hamstring strain he picked up at Celtic Park and trained this week. The only fitness issue of note is Cammy Devlin, who is out for at least six weeks. Shankland and Daisuke Yokota remain sidelined, and Tuur Rommens is back in contention after a lengthy groin problem. For a manager coming off a long break, that is about as clean a bill of health as he could have hoped for.
That makes the question of shape the dominant one, and it is not a simple matter. Various outlets have described the system McInnes used against Celtic in different ways, with some calling it a back-three tweak and others a classic 4-4-2, and the manager himself has not been in a hurry to attach labels. What is clear is that he did not change his team in the two Celtic matches, and that the same group of players produced two dominant performances. The temptation is to run it back. The counterargument is that a stubborn, deep-lying Kilmarnock side will require something different from a team that has spent recent weeks being the one without the ball.
The case for a 4-4-2 is straightforward. It is the shape McInnes has leaned on for much of the season, it produced results, and the players know it inside out. Continuity matters after a long break, because the sharpest teams tend to be the ones that do not have to think about their roles. Against a side that will likely sit in two banks and try to hit on the counter, a flat midfield four and two strikers give Rangers width, pressure on the centre-backs and plenty of bodies in the box when the crosses arrive.
The case for a 4-2-3-1 rests on a different logic. If Kilmarnock defend deep and compact, the space between the lines becomes the most valuable territory on the pitch, and an attacking midfielder operating there can cause problems that two strikers standing shoulder to shoulder cannot. It also opens the door to a different selection on the flanks, and that is where the real debate sits. Everything else in the team looks settled enough that the whole question comes down to who plays up front and who plays wide.
Start at the back, where the choices are few. In goal, Ivor Pandur has made the number one jersey his own. He has kept five clean sheets in seven matches this season, including four in a row at home, and he has quietly become a favourite with the supporters. There is no serious argument for changing that. The Croatian has been calm, commanding and consistent, and a back line that has conceded so little deserves to be left alone.
At right-back, Sterling is the man. Rangers signed Kosta Nedeljković and Ross McCrorie in the summer, but the versatile defender has made the position his own and has been a rock-solid option after the difficult task of following James Tavernier. The hamstring strain he picked up in the derby cost him a little time, but McInnes has confirmed he has trained and is available. The manager even suggested the extra days off helped him, noting that in a normal fortnight break Sterling would probably have been fit anyway. He should start.
In the centre of defence, the partnership of Emmanuel Fernandez and Olwethu Makhanya looks equally secure. Fernandez, the Nigerian centre-back, offers physicality and aerial power at both ends of the pitch, and one description of him this week was that you never quite know what you are getting, but that you cannot leave him out. Makhanya, signed from Philadelphia Union for around three million pounds, was named the Premiership’s Player of the Month for September and has been the steadiest performer in the team. Ben Godfrey, now fit again, has lost his place to him and will have to wait for his chance.
The one real question in defence is at left-back. James Penrice has been the first choice there, and his recent performances, in defence and in midfield, have given McInnes plenty of reasons to keep him in. But Tuur Rommens is back in contention after missing several weeks with a groin injury, and the Belgian is the sort of experienced option a manager likes to have. The likelier outcome is that Penrice keeps his place for now and Rommens is eased back in, particularly with six games to play in five weeks.
That schedule, incidentally, is part of the logic of the whole selection. The run starts this weekend and does not relent, which means McInnes has to balance the desire to reward a settled side with the need to protect players who have just returned from long trips. Some of the thirteen internationalists travelled halfway across the world, and the squad only trained together for the first time on Friday. Fresh legs will matter later in the run, and Rommens is one of the players who could provide them without disrupting the team’s rhythm.
In midfield, the selection looks just as clear. Dan Neil has stepped up as stand-in captain with real class, has been one of the standout performers in recent weeks and took a knock at Celtic Park that has since cleared up. Next to him, Nicolas Raskin looks set to continue. The Belgian has had to deal with transfer speculation, but one report this week suggested a failed move would leave him at the club until at least January, and in the meantime he has focused fully on the job. He is a huge player for McInnes in the weeks ahead, and the manager will not want to disturb that balance.
With Devlin out, the central pair of Neil and Raskin picks itself. The other option, which some have floated, is a 4-2-3-1 with Neil and Raskin as the double pivot and a number ten operating in front of them. That would allow a different kind of creativity, and it would give McInnes a way of starting both of his wide specialists without sacrificing either of his strikers. It is a reasonable idea, but it would also involve changing a system that has delivered six wins on the bounce, and managers rarely tamper with something that works unless they have to.
The flanks are where the dilemma really lives. On the right, Minsu Kim has been an important part of McInnes’s formula, and he comes back from the break with extra confidence after earning his first cap for South Korea. He has still to find the net in a Rangers shirt, and he would love to put that right against a team that has leaked fifteen goals. The counterpoint is that Kim featured heavily in the international matches and may need rest, and that he has a new rival for his place.
That rival is Badredine Bouanani, the Algerian winger on loan from Stuttgart. He arrived in a hectic late move at the end of the transfer window, has so far made one start, playing around an hour against St Mirren, and was used as a substitute in both Celtic games. He did not receive an international call-up, which means he is fresh and further along in settling in than most of his teammates. Crucially, he offers something different. His delivery from wide areas is a real weapon, and against a deep defence, early crosses from the right could be the key that unlocks the game.
If McInnes picks Bouanani, he has to decide what to do about Kim. One option is to leave the Korean on the bench and start the Algerian on the right, which would give Sterling a different kind of partner on that flank. Another is to move Kim into a central position, which is only really possible if the team shifts to a 4-2-3-1. Either way, the choice is as much about tactics as about form, and it is one of the more intriguing selection calls of the weekend.
On the left, Djeidi Gassama looks safe. His end product has lacked at times, but his running power is impossible to ignore, and his ability to beat defenders and win fouls has made him an important part of how the team plays. The winger will be asked to stretch Kilmarnock’s right side, drag defenders out of position and create the space that the strikers need. It is a role he has performed well so far, and there is no obvious pressure on his place.
Up front, the two names are Ryan Naderi and Kevin Kelsy, and the form of both makes them hard to leave out. Naderi was the hero at Celtic Park, scoring the opening goal in the derby, and has since been rewarded with his first call-up for Czechia, making his debut against Spain and then starting against England at Wembley. Kelsy had a September to remember, scoring his first goal for the club and then his first senior goal for Venezuela, and he is slowly building a strong understanding with his partner.
With Shankland out until the new year, the pairing has become the focal point of the attack, and McInnes will be reluctant to separate them. If he sticks with two strikers, the team is almost certainly a 4-4-2, with the two wide players providing service from the flanks. If he wants to play Bouanani and Kim together, the logical consequence is a lone striker and a 4-2-3-1, with one of Naderi and Kelsy coming on later in the game. Either approach could work, but they suggest very different kinds of match.
So how will it look? The most likely line-up is Pandur in goal, with Sterling, Fernandez, Makhanya and Penrice in front of him. Neil and Raskin sit in the middle, Kim and Gassama operate on the flanks, and Naderi and Kelsy lead the line. It is the XI most outlets have settled on, and it is the one that reflects the manager’s instinct for continuity. The alternative, with Bouanani starting and a lone striker, is the dark horse, and if there is a surprise on the team sheet, it will probably be there.
There is also the question of how the team behaves out of possession, which is where McInnes has made some of his most telling adjustments. Against Celtic, Rangers were praised for a disciplined, man-for-man approach that frustrated their rivals and allowed them to strike on the counter. Against Kilmarnock, the situation is reversed. Rangers will have most of the ball, and the challenge is to be patient, avoid being drawn into a long-ball game and keep the structure that has kept the defence so tight. It is a different kind of test, and perhaps a more difficult one.
The visitors themselves are no pushovers, whatever the table suggests. Neil McCann’s team have one league win to their name, a 1-0 victory away at Hibs, and have shown signs of resilience in drawing with Hearts and Aberdeen. They will arrive with nothing to lose. The danger for the hosts is that a slow start gives them confidence, and that a single mistake at the back turns an easy afternoon into a nervous one.
The bench will matter as much as the starting eleven, because a game like this is often settled by what happens after the hour. Bouanani is the obvious impact option if he does not start, given the threat he carries from wide areas, and Rommens could come on to add fresh legs on the left. Ben Godfrey, now fit again, offers cover at the back, and Kosta Nedeljković and Ross McCrorie, both summer signings, give McInnes further options if he wants to rotate. A deep bench is a luxury, but only if the manager is prepared to use it, and with a heavy schedule ahead he may have to.
There is a personal dimension to the afternoon as well. McInnes knows Kilmarnock well, having managed the club before his move to Hearts, and he will be aware of how a team in their position tends to approach a trip to Ibrox. They will defend in numbers, try to make the game ugly, and hope that a set piece or a counter-attack gives them a way back into a season that has started badly. His former club have also shown they can compete, with draws against Hearts and Aberdeen and that win at Easter Road, so complacency would be a mistake.
The way Rangers break down a low block will therefore be the real tactical test. Patience in the build-up, quick switches of play to stretch the visitors and early deliveries into the box are all likely to feature. It is here that a player like Bouanani could prove decisive, because the Algerian’s crossing was a notable feature of his performance against St Mirren, and a team that dominates possession often needs a different kind of delivery to break through. Whether McInnes trusts him from the start or holds him back as a second-half option is one of the more intriguing questions.
It is also worth remembering how little room for error the coming weeks will leave. This weekend begins a run of six matches in five weeks, which means every team sheet has to be judged not only on its own merits but on what it does to the rest of the schedule. A heavy starting eleven on Saturday could mean a tired side in midweek, while too many changes risk breaking the rhythm that has carried Rangers to six straight wins. McInnes has spent the autumn getting that balance right, and the way he handles it this weekend, after a break that unsettled everyone, will say a good deal about how he intends to manage the months ahead. Pandur’s clean sheets, the strikers’ form and the steadiness of the midfield all point towards a side that knows its job. The task now is to prove it again.
Which brings us back to the break itself. McInnes has described it as too long and has spoken of his nervousness about having so many players away for so long. He has also been honest about the practical difficulties, with only eight or nine senior players in training and a need to organise a friendly just to get eleven-a-side football. That is not an excuse, as he has made clear, but it is a reason to be cautious about assuming the team will simply pick up where it left off. The first twenty minutes at Ibrox will reveal a lot.
For the supporters, the hope is that the answer is a comfortable one. Rangers have won six in a row, the squad is healthy, the mood is high and the visitors are struggling. A convincing win would send the team top of the league, however temporarily, and would set up the rest of a demanding stretch with the right kind of momentum. A slip, on the other hand, would hand the initiative back to Celtic and give the doubters something to talk about.
What the selection dilemma ultimately shows is how far the squad has come in a short space of time. A few months ago, McInnes was trying to find a settled team. Now he is choosing between two good options for the right wing, two formations that both have a case, and a left-back spot that has a genuine competitor. These are the problems that managers in good form like to have, and they reflect a squad with real depth in the areas that matter most.
Whichever shape he picks, the principle will be the same. Be patient, move the ball quickly, and trust that the quality in the team will tell. If the early signs are anything to go by, Rangers have the players to do exactly that, and a manager who knows exactly what the risks of the afternoon are. The break is over, the table is waiting, and Ibrox will expect the three points to follow.
